Sam Bankman-Fried might be getting a little unexpected hope from an unlikely source. After President Donald Trump granted clemency to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), prediction markets suddenly turned bullish on the former FTX CEO’s chances of getting a presidential pardon.
According to Polymarket data, the odds of SBF being pardoned more than tripled overnight — jumping from 5.6% to 17% within just 12 hours of CZ’s surprise pardon. In total, over $6.5 million has been wagered on Trump’s potential 2025 pardons, with the SBF market alone attracting about $300,000 in bets.
Over on Kalshi, another prediction platform, the probability of an SBF pardon climbed nine percentage points to around 16%, showing a similar surge in sentiment.
Why people are betting — and why experts say it’s unlikely
SBF is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence after being found guilty of fraud and conspiracy for misusing billions in FTX customer funds. His legal team is appealing the conviction.
CZ’s situation, however, was far less severe. He served four months for violating U.S. anti–money laundering rules — and unlike SBF, he wasn’t accused of stealing customer funds. In his pardon announcement, Trump claimed CZ was “persecuted by the Biden administration for something that wasn’t even a crime.”
Crypto lawyer Sasha Hodder echoed that view, noting that Binance “always functioned as a working exchange where withdrawals were processed,” unlike FTX’s collapse that locked users out of their funds.
Still, despite the speculative excitement online, most legal experts say a pardon for SBF is a long shot. Attorney Jake Chervinsky said he’d be “truly shocked” if Trump extended mercy, pointing out SBF’s status as a former Democratic mega-donor, which could hurt his chances with the current administration.
The politics — and PR — behind the scenes
Sam has been trying to rehab his image. He recently appeared on Tucker Carlson’s podcast, claiming he was unfairly punished for supporting Republicans. His parents have reportedly been quietly reaching out to Trump allies to plead for clemency.
Meanwhile, CZ’s connections to Trump’s orbit seem far stronger. He’s a major backer of World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture linked to the Trump family — a relationship many observers believe played a key role in his unexpected pardon.
Even traders on Polymarket didn’t see it coming. Odds of CZ’s pardon had been hovering between 20% and 40%, but few believed it would actually happen — until it did.
