September might look bearish for Ethereum on the technical front; however, historical data does not always justify a prediction. A trader stated that ETH would dip in September before pumping up in October. During this market correction, many traders would be caught in a bear trap where the price falls to as low as $3.3K before recovering in October, also known as ‘Uptober’. Opposing the traders’ view, another expert stated that market movements should not be predicted based only on previous trends.
Based on historic data, September has been a month when the cryptocurrency and stock markets go through a price decline. A crypto trader and investor who goes by the pseudonym J0hnnyW00, making his remarks about Ethereum’s behavior during the bear market, stated that Ethereum could fall hard to $3.3K during September and recover in October. When this happens, it will catch many paper-handed traders, who sell their crypto at the first sight of a decline, off guard, compelling them to buy back the coin for a higher price.
J0hnnyW00 mentioned, “It might look bearish at first, but if it plays out, it could be the biggest bear trap I’ve ever seen. In September, they could paint a head-and-shoulders pattern to spook everyone, then invalidate it in “Uptober,” trapping people and forcing them to buy higher. We’ve seen this before plenty of times, so it’s definitely possible.”
During September 2021, the year after the previous BTC halving, ETH was trading inside a head and shoulders pattern just like it is currently. By the end of September, ETH crashed from as high as $3.96K to $2.73K; however, when October ended, it reached $4.4K.
Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson, was a little more skeptical of technical indicators and historical behavior. His idea was contrasting to J0hnnyW00’s perception. Expressing his thoughts about these trends and patterns to a prominent crypto media, he stated: “While past trends can sometimes offer insights, they shouldn’t be the primary basis for making predictions about market movements, especially in a dynamic and evolving space like cryptocurrency.” His view is that it’s generally more prudent to focus on fundamental analysis rather than relying on what can often be spurious historical patterns.
