Eleven months into 2025, the year following Bitcoin halving, and the bull run that the market has been waiting for with bated breath has yet to arrive. The crypto market follows a cycle like any other industry. Historically, when a Bitcoin halving event happens, the following year, the prices of the cryptocurrencies spike by quite a margin, but this time around, it has not happened.
Did we miss the bull run?
In my opinion, there could be two scenarios. One, maybe the bull run may have already happened, and we did not even notice it. Analysts and other crypto netizens on X spoiled us into thinking that Bitcoin will hit 150K and $200K, whereas the top could have been just $125K, which BTC already hit just a few months back. Distracted by those big numbers, we might have missed BTC’s crest.
Does the four-year bull cycle still exist?
The second scenario is that maybe the timeframe of the whole crypto cycle, which existed, has now a different clock that it follows. That sequence of BTC halving followed by a bull run and an altseason, which is then followed by a bear market, all in a certain timeframe, might have come to an end. That sequence that happens within that set timeframe might not be valid in today’s context.
Given that the second scenario is true, then a third scenario could be that we are in the pre-market bull season, where the bull market does not follow a set timeline as it used have but now follows its own clock.
Bull markets are PMI sensitive
The case for the second scenario looks much stronger than the first. For instance, the four-year cycle or the BTC halving- Bullrun- Bear market could have been mirroring something else, but it looked like it was fixated with time.
The crypto cycle follows the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), which shows how businesses are doing. From producing goods to hiring employees to other activities. When these parameters show an increase, it shows that the overall economy is good. So rather than following the 4-year cycle, the crypto market has been following the PMI, which eventually had a cycle of four gaps for a bull market. However, that four-year cycle has been dragged into the fifth year according to crypto neitzen Dan Gamberdello.
Stating the reason for this latency, Gamberdello says that behind the scenes, things are building up, but it just has not been portrayed on the chart. He says the liquidity transmits and becomes real economic activity, which then will be portrayed in the charts as PMI. However, the latency is because it takes time for liquidity to be transformed into real economic activity, which is more production, more employees, which then will be reflected as PMI.
According to him, the quantitative tightening is ending in just a few days, and historically preceding PMI inflections are all lining up. So it’s a pre-bull market season, we are passing through.
Markets in fear
The crypto market sentiment has crept into the extreme fear zone, as the weak hands shake out. Just because the overall market sentiment is full of fear, it doesn’t mean that it’s the end, but these are reset zones that give the greatest opportunity.
ASI starts new uptrend
In addition, the altcoin season is just about to spike up. The Altcoin Season Index (ASI), which indicates whether BTC or altcoins are performing better, has started a new uptrend towards the altseason as it reads 47 on its scale.
Altcoin market cap on an uptrend
The chart below shows that the total altcoin market cap is still on track as it fluctuates inside the ascending channel, making higher highs and higher lows. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching the oversold region, the market is bound to correct the prices, and the altcoins market cap will surge.
More liquidity
More good news. The CME group prediction market gives a 71% chance of another rate cut for December 10. Quite a drastic increase from 44% last week.
So the bottom line is the charts are all over the place. Fear is haunting the markets, while liquidity is transmitting. But it’s just not being reflected on the charts. Think about it like a car engine. Before the wheels start moving and you begin covering distance, a lot happens inside the engine.
Inside the combustion chamber, fuel and air ignite, creating an explosion that pushes the pistons down. The pistons turn the crankshaft, and that rotational force is then transmitted through the gears and drivetrain, eventually turning the wheels. It’s a process, and the crypto market is not different. Although not seen on charts, something is happening behind the scenes.
