A popular crypto figure predicted 126x upside for HYPE basing his prediction on the stablecoin growth forecast during a conference in Tokyo, Japan. The co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange, BitMEX, Arthur Hayes predicted Hyperliquid’s HYPE token to gain value by 126x by 2028. On a slide titled “Hyperliquid: 126x Upside” Hayes modelled how the growing stablecoin sector would boost Hyperliquid price while taking center stage at the Webex 2025 web3 conference in Japan.
The thesis behind Hayes prediction
Hayes’ forecast stems from the global stablecoin supply which is projected to hit $10 trillion by 2028. Out of this $10 trillion, Hayes believes that Hyperliquid could secure 26.4% of average daily trading volume across DEXs.
So how can stablecoin growth help decentralized exchanges (DEXs), that trade perpetual contracts–financial derivatives, which have no expiry date? Here’s how it works. Most DEXs that support perpetuals use stablecoins as the base collateral (USDC, USDT, USDe, etc.) since it provides a stable unit that shields traders from volatility in their collateral. Traders deposit stablecoins to margin trades. More stablecoins = more collateral = more open interest capacity. P&L (profit & loss) is usually settled in stablecoins, making it simple and predictable.
Hayes calculation
In the thread of slides one titled “Stablecoin expansion to boost annualized fees to $258B,” the expert considered a 0.03% net trading-fee assumption, a 5% discount rate, and a “Terminal Value of HYPE Rev– estimated value of HYPE at the end of a forecast period (3 years) of $5.161 trillion. When comparing the terminal value of HYPE with the fully diluted value (the total market capitalization if the maximum supply is sold at the current market rate per token), which is $41.05 billion, it would yield an “Upside Potential 126X.”
The net trading fee is an average fee that you have to pay for a transaction on the exchange, while the discount rate is the waiver that traders get for meeting certain trading conditions. And analysts valuing an exchange (or its token) may apply a discount rate when estimating the terminal value of fees.
Is Hayes’ prediction feasible?
It is absolutely feasible, as Co-Founder of Sycrasy Capital, Ryan Watkins, mentioned on X, “Just now, BTC spot on Hyperliquid did more 24H volume than Coinbase and Bybit combined.”
It’s not just the numbers that speak, but also the ecosystem as a whole. According to Watkins, “Syncracy believes $HYPE possesses a unique revenue engine, combining an exchange and smart contract platform, that positions it to become the highest earning blockchain in the world.
