The crypto market is in a state of confusion, just as Bitcoin’s prices dipped below key technical indicators and the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) crashed from 100 to approximately 63. Some crypto netizens think that the bull run is over, while others state that this is just the beginning of the bull run.
As the confusion still continues, let’s break down what is actually happening. On the daily chart shown below, Bitcoin has crashed below a significant level, the 100-day Moving Average. The crash below this poignant level has made the community think whether the bull rally has already come to an end. In addition, the formation of the rising wedge also sheds a bearish view.
Further adding fuel to the already bearish market sentiment, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) touched the extreme level of 100 on its scale before falling back to 63. The ASI gauges the crypto seasons. Values below 25 on the ASI scale are considered Bitcoin season, while values above 75 are considered altcoin season.
Any value greater than 25, but less than 75 is considered neutral (25< neutral>75). When the value is greater than 75, it usually signals that more than 75% of the top 50 tokens are outperforming Bitcoin. But at the time of publishing, the ASI is below the 75 mark, reading a value of 69, which leaves the crypto community in a grey area. With Bitcoin prices and ASI crashing, the community is trying to understand what’s happening.
Untangling the confusion, a Defi YouTuber, who goes by the pseudonym Khalid on Crypto, explained the whole scenario on a Wall Street Cheat Sheet, which explains the psychology of the market cycle. He stated that one day Bitcoin will be up and the next day it could be down, and that means volatility will be high during this stage. Khalid said, “We are currently climbing the wall of worry. Look at the total market cap… higher highs, higher lows.” So just because BTC falls below a resistance level, it doesn’t mean the whole sentiment has changed to bearish.
One specifically important thing that Khalid stated about the altcoin season was that the market was still in Ethereum season, where money flows into ETH. The YouTuber expects the alts to appreciate in the coming 100 days. According to Khalid and his view on the market psychology, irrespective of whether Bitcoin loses value or gains value, the market will be on an uptrend until December 2025, according to the market psychology.
