If you thought crypto exchanges were just about buying and selling coins, think again—Gemini is gearing up to change the game. According to a recent crypto media report, Gemini exchange is preparing to roll out prediction market contracts—events you can trade on, like sports outcomes, economic indicators, or even political forecasts.
Tapping into the booming prediction market trend
Back in May, Gemini applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become a designated contract market, essentially a derivatives exchange.
That license would pave the way for the upcoming event‑based trading platform. Inside sources say Gemini wants to launch “as soon as possible.”
Prediction markets aren’t just fun—they’ve exploded recently. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing record volumes and growing demand. Different sectors, like Hollywood.com, are partnering with prediction markets as well.
Experts on prediction markets
Experts see prediction markets as a smart way to gather a ton of information in one place. The basic idea has been around for a while, starting with an economist named Friedrich Hayek. Unlike a regular poll, where anyone can just say what they think, these markets force you to “put your money where your mouth is.”
However, a major problem is holding them back. Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin has pointed out, most of the big prediction markets don’t pay you any interest on the money you lock up to make a bet. This makes them very unappealing for “hedging” (using them to protect your finances). Think about it: to participate at all, you have to sacrifice a guaranteed 4% APY you could be earning on those dollars somewhere else.
Many experts expect that once this problem is solved and more people start using these markets, a lot more useful hedging cases will finally open up.
What’s next?
There’s still a catch: the CFTC approval process isn’t exactly quick. One report notes the current U.S. government shutdown might delay review of Gemini’s application.
If all goes well, we could see Gemini launching its “event contracts” soon. If not, the delay may give competitors a chance to pull further ahead.
So for readers wondering where crypto’s headed: keep an eye on Gemini’s next move. It’s more than trading coins—this could be about trading outcomes. Whether that’s sports, elections, or macroeconomics, Gemini might just be jumping into a whole new dimension of the finance game.
