An analyst who observed the price action of SEI mentioned that there is no chance of SEI returning to its all-time high above $1. To explain the impossibility of SEI reaching this level, the analyst looked at it from a technical perspective, on-chain side, and supply chain.
A crypto market analyst who goes by the pseudonym “Crypto Talks” posted on X that the chances of the SEI token reaching a new all-time high above $1 are quite slim. To better explain the projected thesis, the analyst looked at it from a few different angles.
Back in March 2024, $SEI hit its all-time high price of $1.14, and during this time, the circulating supply was roughly around 2.7 to 3 billion tokens. And relative to the circulating supply, the market cap was somewhere close to $2.2 to $2.5 billion.
However, come January 2025, the market cap climbed even higher and reached above $2.5 billion with the ongoing broader altcoin rally during that time. On a logical level this should mean that the price of the token should have appreciated above the all-time high. But it was not the case; instead, SEI was trading at $0.63.
Market cap rises as token supply increases while price stagnates
So the question is, when the price has not moved significantly, how can the market cap move?
Well, the market cap is the price of one token multiplied by the circulating supply. This means that if the price of a token did not increase, the supply should have increased. The circulating supply increased to somewhere between 3 and 5 billion. Although new money was entering the market, the tokens were flooding it faster. As such, the price of the token could not show a significant improvement.
Frequent token unlocks will not allow SEI to reach $1
The token unlock will further reduce the chance of the token reaching its previous all-time high. As of today there are about 6.37 billion SEI tokens circulating in the market, about 67% of the total supply of 10 billion tokens. If SEI reaches $1 per token, then the circulating market cap will hit 6.7 billion. However, currently the market cap is $354 million, and to reach $6.7 billion, the price of the token needs to appreciate close to 20x from here. And that is very unlikely.
As per the April 15, 2026 unlock alone, there will be another $55.56 million SEI that will be released to the team allocation. And SEI has been scheduled to unlock 1.5 to 2% of circulating supply every single month. As such, even in the event the token musters the strength to reach a price close to $1, the token supply by that would have reached 7.5 to 8 billion tokens.
The total value locked on SEI crashed by 95%
In mid-2025, $SEI TVL increased to $600 to $680 million, with the help of an incentive program. However, in April 2026, the TVL had crashed by nearly 95%, to $60 million.
Additionally, the daily chain fees are about $368 per day, which says that the traders are hardly using the network for transacting. This Layer 1 blockchain raised $95 million from investors including Jump Crypto, OKX Ventures, and Multicoin Capital, and now the DEX volume hovers around $9 to $10 million daily.
On top of that, the stablecoin market cap sits at $181 million, but native liquidity is only $118 million. The rest are bridged assets looking for an exit.
From the technical point of view, SEI has never been able to rise above the 50-day moving average since October 2025. Although the buyers made a valiant effort to push the prices past this resistance level, they were not able to.
There were many times that the buyers pushed the price close to the 50-day MA, but after testing this level, it was rejected, as there was no conviction. At the time of writing, the relative strength index indicator shows that the SEI price is actually gaining bullish momentum; however, whether it will breach the 50-day moving average is another question.
