As the eventful first half of the year comes to an end, we must take a close look at what happened during the past 6 months. In early 2025, the United States of America chose its 45th president, Donald Trump. After being appointed the leader of the USA, Donald took the initiative to help the economy and usher in a crypto-friendly environment.
From firing the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Chair, Gary Gensler, to setting up an SEC task force, setting reciprocal tariffs, and passing the Genius Act, Trump has been busy in the office. Oh, wait! Trump also constantly appealed to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut the interest rates, to increase the supply of money into the market, lest we forget. However, despite the constant bickering, Powell has done nothing about it. The Fed Chair recently stated that he would have cut interest rates if not for Trump’s ever-changing tariffs.
With the 90-day tariff pause coming to an end, Trump extended the pause to some countries until Aug 1 while stating rates for some countries. In the wake of imposing these tariffs and geopolitical conditions cooling down, and institutional adoptions increasing, the price of Bitcoin has reached its all-time high of $118K.
Cryptocurrencies rise, but is it to fall?
Currently, BTC is trading inside a rising wedge, which is a bearish pattern. Once the coin breaks out from trading inside the rising wedge, the price could fall anywhere below $110K. At press time, the market is overbought; hence, a correction might be coming soon.
Ethereum is no different from Bitcoin as it is also trading inside a rising wedge. Just like BTC, the ETH market has been overbought, and there might be a market correction coming soon for Ethereum. Once ETH retraces, it could fall to the $2.8K level.
However, the crypto market seems to be growing in institutional confidence as more companies are applying for crypto ETFs. In recent times, Canary Capital applied for Pudgy Penguin’s PENGU ETF with the SEC.
Stocks
This week, U.S. stocks broadly treaded water, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs midweek, driven by Nvidia’s milestone $4 trillion valuation. Despite this momentum, President Trump’s new tariff announcements—including levies on Canadian imports (35%), copper (50%), and other goods—caused equity futures to dip late Friday, signaling investor caution ahead of earnings and inflation data.
Overall, equities remained resilient: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were marginally higher for the week, while the Dow slipped slightly, and small‑caps outperformed modestly. Investors are now eyeing next week’s bank earnings and CPI report for clearer direction amidst geopolitical and inflation uncertainties.
What to expect?
The next Federal Open Market Committe (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for 29th and 30th July. During this meeting, the committee will assess the market conditions and decide whether they should cut interest rates.
According to the target rate probability, 93.3% think that the Fed interest rates will remain the same while just a handful (6.7%) think that the interest rates will be reduced between 4.00-4.25.
The interest rates play a pivotal role in how the crypto and stock markets behave, as they indicate the cost of borrowing money or taking out loans. When the rates are low, it shows that borrowing money is less expensive, and therefore there’ll be more money supply in the market. When the money supply increases, investors will be willing to take a chance on risky assets like crypto.
