The altcoin season might spring into action anytime now as the altcoin market cap lies at a tipping point. Based on historic data, every single time the altcoin market cap rose above the 50-day Simple Moving Average after being under it for quite some time, it was followed by a massive rally. With the altcoin market cap once again crossing just above this indicator, there could be yet another rally.
When observing how the altcoin market cap behaved during the past altseason, there is a trend where a spike follows after the market cap recovers above the 50-day Simple Moving Average on the daily chart. In 2023, the market cap spiked by 270%, to more than $260 billion. During the 2024 rally, the altcoin market cap gained value by 125%, while in 2025, the altcoins spiked by 60%. Since the same setup of the market cap rising above the 50-day SMA is seen, another rally might be coming ahead.
It is not just the daily chart that points to an altseason; even the higher time frame chart (1 month) supports the bullish thesis of an altcoin season. The ascending triangle shown in the chart above is a bullish pattern that, when it breaks out, might even cross above the $6 trillion level, according to analysts. The ascending triangle has a flat top and a rising bottom.
Buyers tighten the price from below, sellers defend the ceiling, liquidity builds above resistance, shorts get comfortable, and then a volume-driven breakout triggers stop cascades.
It’s not just the market cap that shows a perfect setup for an altseason, but even the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) is giving some subtle hints about an oncoming rally. When observing closely, the ASI has turned up in the direction of the altcoin territory after heading in the opposite direction for quite some time.
The ASI is a representation of 75% of the top 50 tokens. If more than 75% of the top 50 tokens perform better than Bitcoin for more than 90 days, then it is deemed as altcoin season. In this context the ASI is at 39, and the scale needs to show values above 75 for the altcoin.
However, this is a good starting point towards getting there. So put the whole context together: The market cap has just crossed above the 50-day SMA on the daily chart, a historical event before a rally. The higher time frame chart also aligns with this thesis of a breakout, while the ASI indicator has turned towards the altcoin territory. Don’t these look like the baby steps towards that big leap?
