As Solana (SOL) struggles to hold above the 50-day moving average at $87, the prevailing market dynamics suggest that Solana’s downside could be limited at least during the medium term. Although the futures market is exhausting, there are whales accumulating in the spot market, showing that the downside might be restricted.
$19 million long positions liquidated in a few days
SOL has crashed to a 26-month low as the prices slid below the 50-day moving average, which is around $87. As the price slid from $91 to $89 within the last couple of days, more than $18.5 million in long-leveraged positions were liquidated.
Although the futures market paints a bearish picture with long positions being liquidated, when the entire context of both the spot and futures markets is considered, some positive data can be extracted.
Futures market dynamics shift – takers sell into strength
According to the analytical platform CryptoQuant, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) of liquidity takers has drastically reduced. The CVD typically signals whether a buyer or seller is dominating the market.
In 2024-2025, there was a phase where aggressive sellers dominated the market, which was then followed by intermittent buy-driven traders, where buyers stepped in occasionally.
During that period, as SOL prices appreciated, more long positions (buyers) entered the market, further fuelling the rise. However, in 2026, the dynamics have changed, and momentum traders are selling into strength rather than accumulating, indicating late-market-cycle behavior.
When the futures markets show signs of exhaustion and distribution, spot markets indicate early-stage accumulation. There is a lot of whale activity that is happening at the current price level.
The bottom line of such a setup shows that SOL’s downtrend might be restricted in the medium term, while the spot market will need to create demand for the upside to be confirmed.
With Solana sliding below the 50-day moving average, it is now hovering close to 2024 low levels. The on-chain metrics appear promising, indicating a potential restriction on the coin’s downside.
SOL’s bottom is restricted fundamentally and technically
Even the technical data shows that Solana prices could be recovering, as the relative strength index (RSI) indicator is making higher highs, showing the rising bullish momentum.
In addition, the RSI, which is at 52, shows that there is more room for the prices to go to the upside and that the Solana price is not overbought.
In addition, developer activity, improvements in network stability, and renewed DeFi and consumer application traction are also something that Solana is working on, and this could also add to Solana’s recovery from where it is now.
