Is altcoin season finally warming up, or are we just getting teased again?
The crypto market has a habit of dropping hints before it makes a big move. Right now, those hints are starting to show up in familiar places. Bitcoin is still firmly in charge, holding about 60.9% of total market dominance, but beneath the surface, something is stirring.
Altcoins are beginning to stretch, test their legs, and, in some cases, quietly outperform. That does not mean we are in full altseason yet. It does mean it is time to pay attention. Here are 3 signals that usually tell us when the tide is about to turn.
1. The Altcoin Season Index: Heating up, not boiling yet
The Altcoin Season Index from Blockchain Center is one of the cleanest pulse checks we have. It measures whether 75% of the top 50 altcoins have beaten Bitcoin over a 90-day period. Right now, that long-term index sits at 45, which clearly says, “not altseason.”
But here is where it gets interesting. The shorter 30-day version of the index has jumped to 84. That is a big number. It tells us altcoins are winning the short game, even if they have not yet proven staying power.
This kind of split usually shows up early in a rotation. Capital starts experimenting before it fully commits. Historically, true altcoin seasons only kick off when both the 30-day and 90-day indices stay above 75 together. We are not there yet, but the engine is warming.
2. Bitcoin dominance: Still king, but worth watching closely
Bitcoin is still wearing the crown. At 60.9% dominance, it remains the market’s anchor and safety net. And history is very clear on this point: the real altcoin fireworks usually do not start until Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%.
That is when capital stops playing defense and starts chasing higher risk and higher reward.
We have seen a few small dips recently, but nothing decisive. For now, Bitcoin is still firmly in control. A sustained move below 55% would be the first serious sign that money is rotating away from BTC and into the broader market.
Until that happens, altcoin rallies are likely to stay selective rather than explosive.
3. Market breadth: the final piece of the puzzle
This is the part that tells you whether a few tokens are having a good week or whether the market is actually gearing up for a real altcoin season.
When a strong alt season kicks in, the signs are hard to miss. Big names like ETH and SOL stop wobbling and start climbing with purpose. Mid-cap projects across different sectors move in sync instead of taking turns. Trading volume stops living almost entirely in Bitcoin pairs and begins to spread out across the rest of the market.
Right now, we are only hearing a few instruments, not the full orchestra. Some altcoins are doing well, no doubt about it. But the market is not moving together yet. That tells us there is momentum, but it is tentative. The spark is there; the fire is not fully lit.
What this actually means in practice
For professional investors, the message is fairly straightforward. Keep Bitcoin as your anchor, and treat altcoins as selective experiments rather than a full commitment. Focus on projects with clear reasons to move, things like upcoming network upgrades, major partnerships, or genuine regulatory clarity. And keep an eye on stablecoin liquidity, because when that starts flowing, it often powers the next push higher.
For retail traders, a little restraint goes a long way. This is not the moment to empty the wallet into tiny microcaps just because they are flashing green. Dollar-cost averaging beats chasing candles every time. Most importantly, decide how you plan to exit before the hype shows up and clouds your judgment.
In short, the market is warming up, not boiling yet. Acting like it is already peak season is usually how people get burned.
The bottom line
Yes, the 30-day Altcoin Season Index at 84 looks impressive. No, it does not mean altseason has officially arrived.
What we are seeing now feels familiar. It looks a lot like early 2021, when altcoins started quietly outperforming months before the market truly went vertical. The signals are forming, but they are not aligned yet.
Seasoned market participants know this phase well. These transitions are slow-cooked, not microwaved. Smart money tends to accumulate quality positions patiently while waiting for confirmation.
We will know things are serious when both the 30-day and 90-day indices stay above 75, and Bitcoin finally loosens its grip. Until then, a little patience goes a long way. Stay curious, stay disciplined, and let the market show its hand before you play yours.
