The number of firms leaping into the predictions market has been increasing. This time, Nasdaq, one of the world’s leading stock exchanges, has taken a major step toward launching prediction-market-style trading products on a major stock index.
The stock exchange recently filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to offer ‘outcome-related options’ as a part of the prediction market niche.
Nasdaq joins Polymarket and Kalshi, but through SEC
Polymarket and Kalshi are two leading names in the prediction market industry. Unlike Nasdaq, these two platforms applied for and received a license through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) framework, while the stock exchange filed for one via the SEC.
If you ask yourself whether the regulatory route makes a difference, yes, it does. CFTC regulates derivatives, commodities, futures, swaps, and prediction markets. On the other hand, the SEC has the power over securities, stocks, ETFs, corporate bonds, and more.
Entities like Nasdaq deal with stocks; therefore, they fall under the SEC jurisdiction. Even if both Nasdaq and Polymarket offer similar binary yes/no outcomes, they are categorized under different frameworks.
Nasdaq’s entry into prediction markets is a pretty new move and likely a first-of-its-kind leap for a traditional stock exchange in this area. The move comes amid a growing prediction market with combined trading volume of platforms exceeding $50 billion in 2025.
Notably, there have been disputes over the CFTC regulating the prediction market. Last month, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig went against the U.S. states that opposed the commission for violating the rules.
However, for the CFTC, it has exclusive federal jurisdiction to oversee the prediction markets. As such, Selig filed an amicus (friend‑of‑the‑court) in the wake of crypto.com’s appeal against state regulators blocking the prediction market.
Why is a traditional exchange entering prediction markets?
Retail traders are more inclined to answer simple binary questions and earn a profit from them. Interesting prediction questions can easily gain attention from investors and traders.
Traditional exchanges like Nasdaq find this specific point as a way to flow capital, rather than putting their capital in a stagnant state. Launching its own structured outcome contracts means the exchange can earn money from trading fees, market data, and clearing and settlement, a new revenue stream.
In short, Nasdaq would have likely seen the increasing demand for the prediction markets, and that would be the reason why it stepped into this area.
