For the fourth consecutive time in 2025, the Federal Reserve kept the rates steady between 4.25% and 4.5%, after a two-day meeting ended yesterday. However, the final result of the Fed meeting did not come as a surprise, since almost 97% of the people were expecting no change to the rates according to the CME target rate probability.
Source: CMEgroup
With the projection of the economic growth sliding down to 1.4% in 2025, and the forecast of the unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation ending the year at 3%, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary outlook of the economy.
Despite the forecast that does not support a rate cut, some policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point this year, as they projected in March and December. However, they slightly slowed the pace from there to a single quarter-percentage-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027 while grappling to return inflation to their 2% target.
How did the crypto markets respond to no-rate cuts
Bitcoin was holding steady around the $104K level after the rates remained unchanged. Ethereum gained about 0.7% in value as it hovered close to the $2,500 level. However, at the time of publication, the trading volume has decreased by 10% within the last 24 hours, as the market cap keeps steady at $305 million.
Source: Tradingview
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum was trading inside a descending triangle as it made its way towards making another lower high. If this motion continues, ETH could reach as high as $2,550 very shortly. If ETH breaks out conventionally after forming the descending triangle, there could be more movements below the $2,500 level.
Does no rate cut mean no altcoin season?
Not really. When the Fed rates remain unchanged, it does not mean that the altcoin season won’t happen altogether. Analysts state that the altcoin season is at its accumulation phase, where the altcoin prices are neither soaring nor crashing but consolidating. The altcoin season index shown below is at 18 – in the Bitcoin season territory. Interestingly, altcoin previous altcoin season started when the index showed values just under 20; as such, an altcoin season might be around the corner.
Market experts state that the altcoin season will begin when Bitcoin dominance drops. Some expect that Bitcoin dominance will drop once the price of Bitcoin drops below 100 K. Another aspect that triggers the beginning of an altcoin season would be when the Fed cuts rates or prints more money. When the Fed cuts the rate, borrowing money/loaning would be less expensive, and when the supply of money increases in the market, traders will be interested in investing in risk assets like crypto.
Please note that all price predictions are based on data analysis and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice. Altcoin Desk is not liable for any financial decisions you make.
