An intriguing price pattern about Ethereum (ETH) was recently highlighted by crypto analyst BACH on X. In a post, he remarked that since its launch, every time ETH has had a weak Q4, it has posted a strong Q1 in the following year.
Will ETH surge in Q1 2026?
In an X post, crypto analyst BACH noted that, without exception, every red Q4 for ETH has been followed by a green Q1 for the digital asset. The trend has played out consistently over the past ten years.
According to the following chart, ETH had its worst Q4 back in 2018 when it recorded a decline in price to the tune of 41.62%. However, in Q1 2019, it saw a modest gain of 5.72%.
If history repeats itself, then Q1 2026 is likely to see ETH in the green following its poor price action in Q4 2025, which saw the cryptocurrency erode in value by 28.28%. However, how much the digital asset will appreciate is anybody’s guess.
Institutional interest in ETH remains strong, as recent on-chain movements show that Tom Lee’s Bitmine bought almost 35,000 earlier today from crypto trading platforms Kraken and Bitgo.
Further, technical analysts predict that ETH is poised to surge back to the $3,200 – $3,600 range. According to crypto analyst Gerla, the move is expected to play out in February 2026.
That said, not everyone is equally bullish on the second-largest cryptocurrency by reported market cap. According to crypto trader Sube Trading, ETH is heading to $2,000.
What does on-chain data say?
While the opinion about ETH’s price trajectory may be divided on price charts, recent Ethereum on-chain data portrays a more uniform stance. Recent data from exchanges shows that the ETH supply or reserves is at the lowest level since 2016
Ethereum blockchain use also hit record volumes recently, cementing it as the leading smart-contract protocol by far. Further, Ethereum also surpassed Netflix in terms of market cap earlier this month, as users continue to stake their ETH on the network.
