Coinbase’s Independent Advisory Board released a research paper on quantum computing and blockchain, warning that while today’s blockchains remain secure, the industry cannot afford to wait for a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of cracking widely used encryption to secure digital wallets.
The report was written by a group of well-known researchers, including Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh, Ethereum Foundation’s Justin Drake, Eigen Labs founder Sreeram Kannan, and academics from UT Austin, Bar-Ilan University, and UC Santa Barbara.
The report provides a clear assessment that quantum computers capable of breaking elliptic curve cryptography do not yet exist and are likely at least a decade away, though earlier breakthroughs cannot be ruled out.
Quantum threat still years away
Still, the board urges upgrading decentralized networks, wallets, and infrastructure. a slow, complex process that could take years. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already recommended migrating to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2035, a deadline the report suggests might even be optimistic.
Why waiting could be risky
Not every aspect of the crypto ecosystem faces the same level of risk against quantum computing. Bitcoin’s core infrastructure, including mining, hash functions, and the historical blockchain record, is seen as safe. The same goes for much of the underlying architecture of other major networks.
The biggest risk is at the wallet level. In the future, powerful quantum computers could easily get a wallet’s private key from its public key if that public key is already visible on the blockchain. The report says about 6.9 million BTC are in such wallets today, which could make them targets if quantum technology becomes advanced enough.
Proof-of-stake networks have an added risk because validators use digital signatures to keep the network secure. However, Ethereum has already started planning ways to deal with this. Wallets that keep their public keys hidden are on the safe side for now, but the main concern is that the wallet’s keys are already exposed.
Validator signatures add another layer of risk
Major blockchain networks are already taking action. Ethereum has suggested new quantum-safe signature methods and shared a clear plan for upgrading, which could also improve scalability. Bitcoin is looking into better address formats to protect keys, though it has not finalized a full upgrade plan yet.
Other networks like Solana, Algorand, and Aptos are either introducing or planning quantum-resistant features. Layer 2 solutions like Optimism have even set deadlines for when the transition should begin.
