The prediction market floated a couple of important questions that could make or break the crypto prices in the coming days. Who will Trump nominate as the next Fed chairman? And will Powell cut rates in January? The community gave clear and distinct responses to these two questions while expecting the Bitcoin price to go above $95,000.
The dawn of 2026 gave a glimmer of hope to the crypto community, as the total crypto market cap crossed above the $3 trillion level after quite some time. The $3 trillion is a crucial level for the bull run to validate. It is the first baby step; from here it will reach $3.6 trillion, and thereafter, cross the $4 trillion level, once the bull rally is fully fledged.
However, as the total crypto market cap stands at a pivotal stage of $3.16 trillion, there are two timely questions being raised on the prediction markets. Who will Trump nominate to the next Fed Chair position? And will there be a rate cut in January? The response to these two questions may influence the direction of the total crypto market cap, as the sentiment of the market changes.
Hassett leads Fed Chair odds at 40%
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s four-year term is coming to an end in May 2026, and there are a few candidates being nominated for the position. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council; Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor, and Christopher Waller, current Fed Governor, are the top three names being proposed on the list.
According to the response from the community on the prediction market, Kevin Hassett has a 40% chance of being the next Fed Chair, while Warsh, not too far away from Hassett, has 36% chance of securing the position. Hassett has been Donald Trump’s close ally, as he served in multiple top roles in Trump’s first administration, including Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
In Trump’s second administration, he was appointed Director of the National Economic Council – a key policymaking post. Media and analysts describe him as a Trump ally whose economic views align with the president’s goals and position him as a leading candidate for Fed chair.
Mark Spindel, Chief Investment Officer at Potomac River Capital, stated, “He can take strong, coherent economics and translate it into Trumpian gobbledygook.” Back in December 2025, even Trump himself stated the shortlist was down to one, with Hassett being the ‘potential Fed Chair.’
No January rate cut
As Trump searches for more names for his next Fed Chair, let’s not forget Powell and his acts. ‘Mr. Late,’ as Trump calls him, cut interest rates three times last year, despite volatile tariffs and harsh geopolitical conditions.
25 basis points were cut in September, October, and December, slashing the borrowing rate by 1.5% last year. However, with his term coming to an end in a few months, Powell might not cut interest rates, at least according to the prediction.
During the last three rate cuts, crypto prices showed little reaction when the reductions were implemented.
With no rate cut coming this January, one would expect the market to remain unchanged. However, according to the prediction market, 82% of respondents believe that Bitcoin will cross above $95,000 by January.
With Hassett being the favorite to be the next Fed Chair, it will be fascinating to see how he fights inflation and satisfies Trump with rate cuts while working under the motto “America first.”
