If 2025 were a movie, the crypto market wouldn’t be a hero’s journey—it would be a high-volatility thriller.
The cast featured Federal Reserve rate cuts teasing relief, trade wars and reciprocal tariffs playing the antagonists, and leverage acting as the reckless side character that always causes chaos. The climax came on October 10, when forced liquidations wiped billions off the board, reminding investors that in crypto, the plot can turn in a single candle.
The United States of America entered 2025 in search of its 47th president. 20 days into the new year, Donald Trump took oaths inside the U.S. Capitol rotunda in Washington, DC. Three days before taking oaths, the president launched the TRUMP memecoin, which critics call a pump and dump scheme. This was followed by the MELANIA coin—another suspicious project, which the first lady later introduced.
During this time, Bitcoin was trading at around $94K, as the people entered the new year thinking about a bull rally. According to the previous bull cycle, the year after BTC halving is supposed to be the year of the bulls. However, it is the end of 2025, the year after the BTC halving in 2024, and the bull run has not yet started.
Bitcoin reached $124K as all-time high
At the beginning of the year, analysts predicted Bitcoin reaching $150K-$200K by the end of 2025. None of the predictions came true, despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times consecutively.
Bitcoin reached its new all-time high of $124K just a few months ago. The lowest that BTC reached this year was $79.1K. As shown in the chart below, BTC consolidated at the beginning of the year, and then it crashed. After a rally brought it back to its feet, it then once again consolidated.
As the bull run did not play out as expected, the altcoin season stayed at bay. The Altcoin Season Index, which gauges the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin, reached the altcoin zone just a couple of times during this year.
Despite the altcoin season not sustaining, Ethereum reached a new all-time high of $4.8K. ETH had a major upgrade—Fusaka—which was only able to consolidate the falling prices for some time. With more pressure adding up, the ETH once again crashed.
Market did not flinch despite Fed interest cuts
The Fed reserve cut interest rates three times, but the crypto markets did not react. 0.5% was slashed three times in a row in September, October, and December. However, investors started pricing in the cuts early, and hence there was no surprise displayed in the prices.
When the Fed cut interest rates to introduce more money supply and liquidity into the market, the reciprocal tariffs were sucking up liquidity. Trump’s trade war with China induced more volatility in the market.
The trade war went to and fro many times, and it came to a point where the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could not handle it. He even stated that the Fed rate cuts would have come earlier if not for the tariffs. On the other hand, Trump complained that Powell was late in cutting interest rates and even considered replacing him.
As the blame game continued, there came the apex point where the market hit its climax. On the 10th of October, the whole crypto market lost about $20 billion in one day, the highest amount liquidated. The building geopolitical situation and Trump’s volatile tariffs were the catalysts that added to this massive liquidation.
Now that the year is ending and Powell’s term is coming to an end by April-May 2026, Trump already has a few names in his suggestion list for the Fed chair position. In the coming days, the newly appointed chair will have the task of approving crypto ETFs, cutting interest rates, and keeping inflation under control. One of the favorites to take the chair position is also one of Trump’s closest friends. Given this scenario, it will be interesting to see how the Fed will keep its independence when the president is a close friend and make decisions that will put ‘America First.’
