Over the past 48 hours, several Polymarket traders walked away with huge profits after betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The notable one was a trader who converted $13K into $477K, taking a massive 3,500% return in a matter of hours.
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain highlighted another active trader, who bagged around $194K on the ceasefire outcome. That win adds to the trader’s earlier $260K profit from a Maduro out-market tied to the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
Altogether, this account has now generated close to $440K–$454K from these two geopolitical bets alone.
Three newly created wallets collectively took $484,575 across the US-Iran ceasefire market. On-chain data shows these wallets had no prior activity before funding up and placing bets when the probability sat between just 2.9% and 10.3%.
Suspicious timing raises questions
Timing of these bets has fueled suspicion. One of the largest positions was opened at only about eight and a half hours before President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social announcing progress toward a ceasefire.
Other suspicious entries came earlier that day and even the night before. The market ultimately closed at “Yes” after the U.S. and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reached agreement on a two-week ceasefire.
A separate wallet, flagged as suspicious by prediction market tracker Polymarket History, is said to have earned more than $400,000 by nailing both the timing of recent Iran-related military moves and the subsequent de-escalation.
Luck or Trump administration ties
Market observers quickly took to social media, with many calling it just another lucky trade while others openly speculated whether the traders had ties to the Trump administration.
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has faced speculation of insider trading. At the start of this year, an account turned a $30k–$32k bet into over $400K by correctly predicting the timing of Maduro’s capture.
In February, Israeli authorities arrested two individuals, including a military reservist, for allegedly using confidential information to bet on Israeli strikes against Iran.
Prediction market under pressure
Prediction markets are exploding, recently outdoing $10 billion in monthly trading volume. Yet the platforms remain under pressure from regulators and lawmakers, who worry about market manipulation and the use of non-public information.
As a result, U.S. legislators have floated several bills aimed at restricting government officials, staff, and political appointees fromtrading on prediction platforms, especially markets involving policy outcomes or national security matters.
On the other side, Polymarket recently updated its market integrity rules, explicitly banning trades based on stolen information, illegal tips, or outcomes a user could personally influence. Competitor Kalshi has partnered with surveillance firm Solidus Labs and formed an independent advisory committee to monitor for abuse.
Just a day before Polymarket announced what it called its biggest infrastructure upgrade to date. The full exchange overhaul, rolling out over the next 2–3 weeks, includes a rebuilt trading engine, upgraded smart contracts, a redesigned central limit order book for faster execution and tighter spreads, and support for smart contract wallets.
At the center of the changes is a new native collateral token called Polymarket USD, backed 1:1 by Circle’s USDC. The new version will supplant the existing bridged USDC.e on Polygon. The goal is to bolster security, cut down on fees, simplify settlements, and perhaps even open doors to fresh yield or revenue streams for the platform, which is anticipating expansion and a potential U.S. launch.
Whether these latest wins represent remarkable luck, sharp analysis, or something more questionable remains unproven. What’s clear is that as prediction markets mature and handle ever-larger sums on real-world events, the line between informed trading and insider advantage is becoming harder to ignore.
